But Russian exports are down, too, approximately 18% in August compared to February.
Most Russian fuel supplies are still reaching international markets, however, because countries like China and India are happy to buy discounted product from a not-quite-fully marginalized Kremlin. To a large extent, this is a result of decreased Russian exports of oil, natural gas, and coal, which have been hit by western sanctions and other policy efforts to curb Russian revenues funding atrocities in Ukraine. The immediate problem is simple: There is not enough fuel, and therefore not enough electricity, so prices have skyrocketed for both. Any current energy planning that fails to account for next year and beyond is jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire-where this winter is a problem, 2023’s may be a catastrophe.
It is winter 2023-2024 that is going to be the real crisis. For policymakers grappling with global energy shortages and households scrambling to pay record high utility bills, some unwelcome news: This year’s energy crisis is going to look mild once next year’s kicks in.
